Analysis of exam results for 2024
Analysis of exam results for 2024
Rise in top grades at A level, but increasing regional attainment gap
Across England, Wales and Northern Ireland, A level top grades have risen, with an average of 27.8% of all grades marked at A* or A (27.6% for England alone). The percentage of top grades this year is higher than any other year since 2010, when the A* grade was introduced (excluding the Covid-19 pandemic years when there were changes in assessment processes) (Ofqual).
Despite the rise in top grades, the proportion of young people who achieve A* or A grades varies considerably depending on where they live. The regions with the highest proportions of A* and A grades in 2024 include Greater London (30.7%) and Surrey (35.6%), whilst those with the lowest proportions of A* and A grades include Cumbria, Leicestershire and Lincolnshire (21.2%, 21.4% and 21.5% respectively) (Ofqual).
Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at the University of Exeter, commented that “When it comes to A-level results, we effectively have a two-tier system: London and the south-east versus the rest of the country” (The Guardian). The BBC reported that the gap between the two regions with the highest and lowest proportions of A* and A grades each year has grown, and is still higher than it was before the pandemic. (The Bridge Group has previously reported on the urban-rural regional divide, and how pupils from lower socio-economic backgrounds (SEBs) in rural areas perform less well compared to their peers in urban schools.)
In addition, attainment gaps based on school type remain, with private schools continuing to hugely outperform state schools. Independent schools achieved 49.4% of entries awarding A* and A grades (47.4% in 2023), whilst academies, sixth form colleges and comprehensives achieved 26.5%, 23.8% and 22.3% respectively (25.4%, 22.9% and 22.0% respectively in 2023) (Ofqual).
More university applicants with a confirmed place, including those from less advantaged backgrounds
In 2024, there were more UK-domiciled 18-year-old applicants with a confirmed university place one day after results day than at any point in history (Wonkhe). Indeed, HEPI reported that 82% of those holding offers had been accepted by their first-choice university on the morning results were published.
This is contrary to previous media commentary that young people, particularly those from lower SEBs, are less interested in attending university this year because of growing financial pressures on students. In fact, UCAS admissions data reveals that record numbers of students from the least advantaged backgrounds in England now have a place at university. On 15 August, UCAS reported that 27,600 of UK 18-year-olds from the least advantaged backgrounds (POLAR4, Quintile 1) accepted a place, up 7% on 25,800 last year and up 4% on the previous high record of 26,650.
On 29 August, in their daily clearing analysis, UCAS published the POLAR4 entry rate for 18-year-old applicants from Quintile 1 (the least advantaged areas of England) as being 22.9% which is the highest entry rate on record. It is, however, worth contextualising these figures by comparing them against an overall entry rate of 36.0% and an entry rate of 50.6% among the most advantaged areas (Quintile 5). As the Sutton Trust has highlighted, the increase in entry rate for those in Quintile 5 means that although the entry rate for those in Quintile 1 has also increased, the gap in participation between these two groups has actually widened.
At the Bridge Group, we celebrate these record numbers of admissions from students from the least advantaged backgrounds. We understand the transformative impact of university on people from all SEBs, but also appreciate that a growing proportion of university students are at risk of financial hardship this coming academic year. Frozen maintenance loans and increasing costs mean that students who need to supplement their income with paid employment are spending almost 16 hours a week working (HEPI). (You can read more about the Bridge Group’s practical recommendations for universities to help them break the link between student hardship and lower graduate outcomes).
Despite the rise in applications from people from lower SEBs, a lack of opportunity persists which is visible in the widening gap between application rates in different regional areas. The Guardian reported the gap between university application rates from London and the north-east of England, which had the lowest application rate, has widened further: “while more than half of school leavers in London go on to higher education, only one in three do so from the north-east.”
Variable results for other level three qualifications
As well as A levels, the last month has seen published results for other qualifications, including Highers, T Levels and Vocational Technical Qualifications (VTQs).
The Scottish Qualifications Authority released 2024 exam results early in August, showing that the attainment gap had widened at National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher, with the gap now wider than it was in 2019 (TES).
For T-levels, the headline news story for 2024 is that the dropout rates for this technical qualification remain high, with only 71% of T-level students completing their course in 2024. Of those that sat the exam, 88.7% (6,543) achieved a pass or above, which is a lower pass rate than in 2023.
For VTQs, 250,000 VTQ results were issued, with 217,600 results for Applied Generals and 32,400 for Tech Levels. Ofqual’s results showed a slight fall in the highest grades awarded for applied general qualifications such as BTecs and large gender disparities in certain disciplines.
More detailed analysis of all the results for level 3 attainment at age 19, including correlations with pupil characteristics, will be published in April 2025, and will be available on the Department for Education website.
At level two, the pass rate for GCSEs falls and regional variations persist
The pass rate for GCSEs across England, Wales and Northern Ireland has fallen for the third year running, with 67.6% of all grades at 4/C or above (down from 68.2% in 2023). (Ofqual, 2024).
Again, the grades show large variations between regions in England. In 2024, the percentage of entries marked at 4/C or above in London was 73.1% and in Hertfordshire, 75.8%. In contrast, Merseyside achieved 61.0% and Staffordshire 61.5%. This attainment gap between London and other regions, particularly the North, has grown since 2019. The BBC reported that four out of five regions in the North and Midlands had a lower pass rate this year than in 2019 - but in every region in the South it has risen.
The number of pupils who were unable to gain the grade 4 minimum in English and maths and who are now required to take resits has also risen to above 2019 or 2023 levels. The BBC reports that the Association of Colleges is now questioning whether the system of compulsory GCSE resits is appropriate, with the Association of School and College Leaders calling it “demoralising”. Undoubtedly, less advantaged families will be disproportionately affected through having to remain in level two education for a further two years to undertake the resits.
You can compare some of the results above, with the Bridge Group’s blog from last year which highlighted a widening disadvantage gap for the class of 2023. Importantly, the blog pulled together some of our previous recommendations which address the attainment gap.